AlphaFold predictions are valuable hypotheses and accelerate but do not replace experimental structure determination.

Artificial intelligence-based protein structure prediction methods such as AlphaFold have revolutionized structural biology. The accuracies of these predictions vary, however, and they do not take into account ligands, covalent modifications or other environmental factors. Here, we evaluate how well AlphaFold predictions can be expected to describe the structure of a protein by comparing predictions directly with experimental crystallographic maps. In many cases, AlphaFold predictions matched experimental maps remarkably closely. In other cases, even very high-confidence predictions differed from experimental maps on a global scale through distortion and domain orientation, and on a local scale in backbone and side-chain conformation. We suggest considering AlphaFold predictions as exceptionally useful hypotheses. We further suggest that it is important to consider the confidence in prediction when interpreting AlphaFold predictions and to carry out experimental structure determination to verify structural details, particularly those that involve interactions not included in the prediction.

Likelihood-based signal and noise analysis for docking of models into cryo-EM maps.

Fast, reliable docking of models into cryo-EM maps requires understanding of the errors in the maps and the models. Likelihood-based approaches to errors have proven to be powerful and adaptable in experimental structural biology, finding applications in both crystallography and cryo-EM. Indeed, previous crystallographic work on the errors in structural models is directly applicable to likelihood targets in cryo-EM. Likelihood targets in Fourier space are derived here to characterize, based on the comparison of half-maps, the direction- and resolution-dependent variation in the strength of both signal and noise in the data. Because the signal depends on local features, the signal and noise are analysed in local regions of the cryo-EM reconstruction. The likelihood analysis extends to prediction of the signal that will be achieved in any docking calculation for a model of specified quality and completeness. A related calculation generalizes a previous measure of the information gained by making the cryo-EM reconstruction.

Likelihood-based docking of models into cryo-EM maps.

Optimized docking of models into cryo-EM maps requires exploiting an understanding of the signal expected in the data to minimize the calculation time while maintaining sufficient signal. The likelihood-based rotation function used in crystallography can be employed to establish plausible orientations in a docking search. A phased likelihood translation function yields scores for the placement and rigid-body refinement of oriented models. Optimized strategies for choices of the resolution of data from the cryo-EM maps to use in the calculations and the size of search volumes are based on expected log-likelihood-gain scores computed in advance of the search calculation. Tests demonstrate that the new procedure is fast, robust and effective at placing models into even challenging cryo-EM maps.

Accelerating crystal structure determination with iterative AlphaFold prediction.

Experimental structure determination can be accelerated with artificial intelligence (AI)-based structure-prediction methods such as AlphaFold. Here, an automatic procedure requiring only sequence information and crystallographic data is presented that uses AlphaFold predictions to produce an electron-density map and a structural model. Iterating through cycles of structure prediction is a key element of this procedure: a predicted model rebuilt in one cycle is used as a template for prediction in the next cycle. This procedure was applied to X-ray data for 215 structures released by the Protein Data Bank in a recent six-month period. In 87% of cases our procedure yielded a model with at least 50% of Cα atoms matching those in the deposited models within 2 Å. Predictions from the iterative template-guided prediction procedure were more accurate than those obtained without templates. It is concluded that AlphaFold predictions obtained based on sequence information alone are usually accurate enough to solve the crystallographic phase problem with molecular replacement, and a general strategy for macromolecular structure determination that includes AI-based prediction both as a starting point and as a method of model optimization is suggested.

The suppressor of copper sensitivity protein C from Caulobacter crescentus is a trimeric disulfide isomerase that binds copper(I) with subpicomolar affinity.

The introduction of disulfide bonds into periplasmic proteins is a critical process in many Gram-negative bacteria. The formation and regulation of protein disulfide bonds have been linked to the production of virulence factors. Understanding the different pathways involved in this process is important in the development of strategies to disarm pathogenic bacteria. The well characterized disulfide bond-forming (DSB) proteins play a key role by introducing or isomerizing disulfide bonds between cysteines in substrate proteins. Curiously, the suppressor of copper sensitivity C proteins (ScsCs), which are part of the bacterial copper-resistance response, share structural and functional similarities with DSB oxidase and isomerase proteins, including the presence of a catalytic thioredoxin domain. However, the oxidoreductase activity of ScsC varies with its oligomerization state, which depends on a poorly conserved N-terminal domain. Here, the structure and function of Caulobacter crescentus ScsC (CcScsC) have been characterized. It is shown that CcScsC binds copper in the copper(I) form with subpicomolar affinity and that its isomerase activity is comparable to that of Escherichia coli DsbC, the prototypical dimeric bacterial isomerase. It is also reported that CcScsC functionally complements trimeric Proteus mirabilis ScsC (PmScsC) in vivo, enabling the swarming of P. mirabilis in the presence of copper. Using mass photometry and small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) the protein is demonstrated to be trimeric in solution, like PmScsC, and not dimeric like EcDsbC. The crystal structure of CcScsC was also determined at a resolution of 2.6 Å, confirming the trimeric state and indicating that the trimerization results from interactions between the N-terminal α-helical domains of three CcScsC protomers. The SAXS data analysis suggested that the protomers are dynamic, like those of PmScsC, and are able to sample different conformations in solution.

Implications of AlphaFold2 for crystallographic phasing by molecular replacement.

The AlphaFold2 results in the 14th edition of Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP14) showed that accurate (low root-mean-square deviation) in silico models of protein structure domains are on the horizon, whether or not the protein is related to known structures through high-coverage sequence similarity. As highly accurate models become available, generated by harnessing the power of correlated mutations and deep learning, one of the aspects of structural biology to be impacted will be methods of phasing in crystallography. Here, the data from CASP14 are used to explore the prospects for changes in phasing methods, and in particular to explore the prospects for molecular-replacement phasing using in silico models.

Assessing the utility of CASP14 models for molecular replacement.

The assessment of CASP models for utility in molecular replacement is a measure of their use in a valuable real-world application. In CASP7, the metric for molecular replacement assessment involved full likelihood-based molecular replacement searches; however, this restricted the assessable targets to crystal structures with only one copy of the target in the asymmetric unit, and to those where the search found the correct pose. In CASP10, full molecular replacement searches were replaced by likelihood-based rigid-body refinement of models superimposed on the target using the LGA algorithm, with the metric being the refined log-likelihood-gain (LLG) score. This enabled multi-copy targets and very poor models to be evaluated, but a significant further issue remained: the requirement of diffraction data for assessment. We introduce here the relative-expected-LLG (reLLG), which is independent of diffraction data. This reLLG is also independent of any crystal form, and can be calculated regardless of the source of the target, be it X-ray, NMR or cryo-EM. We calibrate the reLLG against the LLG for targets in CASP14, showing that it is a robust measure of both model and group ranking. Like the LLG, the reLLG shows that accurate coordinate error estimates add substantial value to predicted models. We find that refinement by CASP groups can often convert an inadequate initial model into a successful MR search model. Consistent with findings from others, we show that the AlphaFold2 models are sufficiently good, and reliably so, to surpass other current model generation strategies for attempting molecular replacement phasing.

Likelihood-based estimation of substructure content from single-wavelength anomalous diffraction (SAD) intensity data.

SAD phasing can be challenging when the signal-to-noise ratio is low. In such cases, having an accurate estimate of the substructure content can determine whether or not the substructure of anomalous scatterer positions can successfully be determined. Here, a likelihood-based target function is proposed to accurately estimate the strength of the anomalous scattering contribution directly from the measured intensities, determining a complex correlation parameter relating the Bijvoet mates as a function of resolution. This gives a novel measure of the intrinsic anomalous signal. The SAD likelihood target function also accounts for correlated errors in the measurement of intensities from Bijvoet mates, which can arise from the effects of radiation damage. When the anomalous signal is assumed to come primarily from a substructure comprising one anomalous scatterer with a known value of f'' and when the protein composition of the crystal is estimated correctly, the refined complex correlation parameters can be interpreted in terms of the atomic content of the primary anomalous scatterer before the substructure is known. The maximum-likelihood estimation of substructure content was tested on a curated database of 357 SAD cases with useful anomalous signal. The prior estimates of substructure content are highly correlated to the content determined by phasing calculations, with a correlation coefficient (on a log-log basis) of 0.72.

Detection of translational noncrystallographic symmetry in Patterson functions.

Detection of translational noncrystallographic symmetry (TNCS) can be critical for success in crystallographic phasing, particularly when molecular-replacement models are poor or anomalous phasing information is weak. If the correct TNCS is detected then expected intensity factors for each reflection can be refined, so that the maximum-likelihood functions underlying molecular replacement and single-wavelength anomalous dispersion use appropriate structure-factor normalization and variance terms. Here, an analysis of a curated database of protein structures from the Protein Data Bank to investigate how TNCS manifests in the Patterson function is described. These studies informed an algorithm for the detection of TNCS, which includes a method for detecting the number of vectors involved in any commensurate modulation (the TNCS order). The algorithm generates a ranked list of possible TNCS associations in the asymmetric unit for exploration during structure solution.

Phasertng: directed acyclic graphs for crystallographic phasing.

Crystallographic phasing strategies increasingly require the exploration and ranking of many hypotheses about the number, types and positions of atoms, molecules and/or molecular fragments in the unit cell, each with only a small chance of being correct. Accelerating this move has been improvements in phasing methods, which are now able to extract phase information from the placement of very small fragments of structure, from weak experimental phasing signal or from combinations of molecular replacement and experimental phasing information. Describing phasing in terms of a directed acyclic graph allows graph-management software to track and manage the path to structure solution. The crystallographic software supporting the graph data structure must be strictly modular so that nodes in the graph are efficiently generated by the encapsulated functionality. To this end, the development of new software, Phasertng, which uses directed acyclic graphs natively for input/output, has been initiated. In Phasertng, the codebase of Phaser has been rebuilt, with an emphasis on modularity, on scripting, on speed and on continuing algorithm development. As a first application of phasertng, its advantages are demonstrated in the context of phasertng.xtricorder, a tool to analyse and triage merged data in preparation for molecular replacement or experimental phasing. The description of the phasing strategy with directed acyclic graphs is a generalization that extends beyond the functionality of Phasertng, as it can incorporate results from bioinformatics and other crystallographic tools, and will facilitate multifaceted search strategies, dynamic ranking of alternative search pathways and the exploitation of machine learning to further improve phasing strategies.

Structure of the Human Cation-Independent Mannose 6-Phosphate/IGF2 Receptor Domains 7-11 Uncovers the Mannose 6-Phosphate Binding Site of Domain 9.

The cation-independent mannose 6-phosphate (M6P)/Insulin-like growth factor-2 receptor (CI-MPR/IGF2R) is an ∼300 kDa transmembrane protein responsible for trafficking M6P-tagged lysosomal hydrolases and internalizing IGF2. The extracellular region of the CI-MPR has 15 homologous domains, including M6P-binding domains (D) 3, 5, 9, and 15 and IGF2-binding domain 11. We have focused on solving the first structures of human D7-10 within two multi-domain constructs, D9-10 and D7-11, and provide the first high-resolution description of the high-affinity M6P-binding D9. Moreover, D9 stabilizes a well-defined hub formed by D7-11 whereby two penta-domains intertwine to form a dimeric helical-type coil via an N-glycan bridge on D9. Remarkably the D7-11 structure matches an IGF2-bound state of the receptor, suggesting this may be an intrinsically stable conformation at neutral pH. Interdomain clusters of histidine and proline residues may impart receptor rigidity and play a role in structural transitions at low pH.

Measuring and using information gained by observing diffraction data.

The information gained by making a measurement, termed the Kullback-Leibler divergence, assesses how much more precisely the true quantity is known after the measurement was made (the posterior probability distribution) than before (the prior probability distribution). It provides an upper bound for the contribution that an observation can make to the total likelihood score in likelihood-based crystallographic algorithms. This makes information gain a natural criterion for deciding which data can legitimately be omitted from likelihood calculations. Many existing methods use an approximation for the effects of measurement error that breaks down for very weak and poorly measured data. For such methods a different (higher) information threshold is appropriate compared with methods that account well for even large measurement errors. Concerns are raised about a current trend to deposit data that have been corrected for anisotropy, sharpened and pruned without including the original unaltered measurements. If not checked, this trend will have serious consequences for the reuse of deposited data by those who hope to repeat calculations using improved new methods.

Factors influencing estimates of coordinate error for molecular replacement.

Good prior estimates of the effective root-mean-square deviation (r.m.s.d.) between the atomic coordinates of the model and the target optimize the signal in molecular replacement, thereby increasing the success rate in difficult cases. Previous studies using protein structures solved by X-ray crystallography as models showed that optimal error estimates (refined after structure solution) were correlated with the sequence identity between the model and target, and with the number of residues in the model. Here, this work has been extended to find additional correlations between parameters of the model and the target and hence improved prior estimates of the coordinate error. Using a graph database, a curated set of 6030 molecular-replacement calculations using models that had been solved by X-ray crystallography was analysed to consider about 120 model and target parameters. Improved estimates were achieved by replacing the sequence identity with the Gonnet score for sequence similarity, as well as by considering the resolution of the target structure and the MolProbity score of the model. This approach was extended by analysing 12 610 additional molecular-replacement calculations where the model was determined by NMR. The median r.m.s.d. between pairs of models in an ensemble was found to be correlated with the estimated r.m.s.d. to the target. For models solved by NMR, the overall coordinate error estimates were larger than for structures determined by X-ray crystallography, and were more highly correlated with the number of residues.

Macromolecular structure determination using X-rays, neutrons and electrons: recent developments in Phenix.

Diffraction (X-ray, neutron and electron) and electron cryo-microscopy are powerful methods to determine three-dimensional macromolecular structures, which are required to understand biological processes and to develop new therapeutics against diseases. The overall structure-solution workflow is similar for these techniques, but nuances exist because the properties of the reduced experimental data are different. Software tools for structure determination should therefore be tailored for each method. Phenix is a comprehensive software package for macromolecular structure determination that handles data from any of these techniques. Tasks performed with Phenix include data-quality assessment, map improvement, model building, the validation/rebuilding/refinement cycle and deposition. Each tool caters to the type of experimental data. The design of Phenix emphasizes the automation of procedures, where possible, to minimize repetitive and time-consuming manual tasks, while default parameters are chosen to encourage best practice. A graphical user interface provides access to many command-line features of Phenix and streamlines the transition between programs, project tracking and re-running of previous tasks.

Temporal Ordering in Endocytic Clathrin-Coated Vesicle Formation via AP2 Phosphorylation.

Clathrin-mediated endocytosis (CME) is key to maintaining the transmembrane protein composition of cells' limiting membranes. During mammalian CME, a reversible phosphorylation event occurs on Thr156 of the µ2 subunit of the main endocytic clathrin adaptor, AP2. We show that this phosphorylation event starts during clathrin-coated pit (CCP) initiation and increases throughout CCP lifetime. µ2Thr156 phosphorylation favors a new, cargo-bound conformation of AP2 and simultaneously creates a binding platform for the endocytic NECAP proteins but without significantly altering AP2's cargo affinity in vitro. We describe the structural bases of both. NECAP arrival at CCPs parallels that of clathrin and increases with µ2Thr156 phosphorylation. In turn, NECAP recruits drivers of late stages of CCP formation, including SNX9, via a site distinct from where NECAP binds AP2. Disruption of the different modules of this phosphorylation-based temporal regulatory system results in CCP maturation being delayed and/or stalled, hence impairing global rates of CME.

On the application of the expected log-likelihood gain to decision making in molecular replacement.

Molecular-replacement phasing of macromolecular crystal structures is often fast, but if a molecular-replacement solution is not immediately obtained the crystallographer must judge whether to pursue molecular replacement or to attempt experimental phasing as the quickest path to structure solution. The introduction of the expected log-likelihood gain [eLLG; McCoy et al. (2017), Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 3637-3641] has given the crystallographer a powerful new tool to aid in making this decision. The eLLG is the log-likelihood gain on intensity [LLGI; Read & McCoy (2016), Acta Cryst. D72, 375-387] expected from a correctly placed model. It is calculated as a sum over the reflections of a function dependent on the fraction of the scattering for which the model accounts, the estimated model coordinate error and the measurement errors in the data. It is shown how the eLLG may be used to answer the question `can I solve my structure by molecular replacement?'. However, this is only the most obvious of the applications of the eLLG. It is also discussed how the eLLG may be used to determine the search order and minimal data requirements for obtaining a molecular-replacement solution using a given model, and for decision making in fragment-based molecular replacement, single-atom molecular replacement and likelihood-guided model pruning.

Gyre and gimble: a maximum-likelihood replacement for Patterson correlation refinement.

Descriptions are given of the maximum-likelihood gyre method implemented in Phaser for optimizing the orientation and relative position of rigid-body fragments of a model after the orientation of the model has been identified, but before the model has been positioned in the unit cell, and also the related gimble method for the refinement of rigid-body fragments of the model after positioning. Gyre refinement helps to lower the root-mean-square atomic displacements between model and target molecular-replacement solutions for the test case of antibody Fab(26-10) and improves structure solution with ARCIMBOLDO_SHREDDER.

Exploiting distant homologues for phasing through the generation of compact fragments, local fold refinement and partial solution combination.

Macromolecular structures can be solved by molecular replacement provided that suitable search models are available. Models from distant homologues may deviate too much from the target structure to succeed, notwithstanding an overall similar fold or even their featuring areas of very close geometry. Successful methods to make the most of such templates usually rely on the degree of conservation to select and improve search models. ARCIMBOLDO_SHREDDER uses fragments derived from distant homologues in a brute-force approach driven by the experimental data, instead of by sequence similarity. The new algorithms implemented in ARCIMBOLDO_SHREDDER are described in detail, illustrating its characteristic aspects in the solution of new and test structures. In an advance from the previously published algorithm, which was based on omitting or extracting contiguous polypeptide spans, model generation now uses three-dimensional volumes respecting structural units. The optimal fragment size is estimated from the expected log-likelihood gain (LLG) values computed assuming that a substructure can be found with a level of accuracy near that required for successful extension of the structure, typically below 0.6 Šroot-mean-square deviation (r.m.s.d.) from the target. Better sampling is attempted through model trimming or decomposition into rigid groups and optimization through Phaser's gyre refinement. Also, after model translation, packing filtering and refinement, models are either disassembled into predetermined rigid groups and refined (gimble refinement) or Phaser's LLG-guided pruning is used to trim the model of residues that are not contributing signal to the LLG at the target r.m.s.d. value. Phase combination among consistent partial solutions is performed in reciprocal space with ALIXE. Finally, density modification and main-chain autotracing in SHELXE serve to expand to the full structure and identify successful solutions. The performance on test data and the solution of new structures are described.

Maximum-likelihood determination of anomalous substructures.

A fast Fourier transform (FFT) method is described for determining the substructure of anomalously scattering atoms in macromolecular crystals that allows successful structure determination by X-ray single-wavelength anomalous diffraction (SAD). This method is based on the maximum-likelihood SAD phasing function, which accounts for measurement errors and for correlations between the observed and calculated Bijvoet mates. Proof of principle is shown that this method can improve determination of the anomalously scattering substructure in challenging cases where the anomalous scattering from the substructure is weak but the substructure also constitutes a significant fraction of the real scattering. The method is deterministic and can be fast compared with existing multi-trial dual-space methods for SAD substructure determination.